The June Outlook sees a mix of growing product categories: what do online shoppers intend to buy?

AfterPay Insights’ monthly forecasts are back with this June outlook for e-commerce in the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, and the UK. Do Dutch, German, Norwegian and UK consumers intend to increase or decrease their shopping in June? What does this mean for overall e-commerce growth in June? And which categories can we expect to grow or decline from both the online and offline perspectives?

A quick look back into the May data tells us about the different trends in the four countries. It appears that both the UK and Germany have in increase in online volumes in the May month, with an e-commerce development in the UK of 5.6 (was 5.4 in April) and in Germany of 5.1 (was 4.6 in April). In other shoes however, the Netherlands and Norway see a slight decline in e-commerce volumes. The Netherlands has a volume of 3.8 (was 4.1 in April and Norway shrinks to 2.7 (from 3.2 in April). The decline in volumes is a spring/summer trend we saw in the previous years as well, where the seasonal effect comes to show. After the Peak Season, a slower and more offline season comes about.

Our results show mixed results on how consumers intend to increase or decrease their overall purchases in June. Also, we see that the share of consumers who intend to increase online vs offline purchases is mixed, too. Only in Germany we see the biggest category increase more offline (vs online). Conversely, the three other countries have a large category that grows both offline and online.

The Netherlands: 1 in 4 Dutch online purchases is in Fashion and expected lead overall growth in June, growing both offline and online

The Dutch are loyal fashion shoppers. The Share of online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in Fashion (in April 2022) is 26%, and a solid 32% for Fashion/Cosmetics, which makes it again the bigger in the nation. Based on consumers’ projections, Fashion will continue being the dominant growth category in June, where about 30% of the increase is expected to be online and 70% offline.

Another good month ahead for Health/ Health Food Products: the category sees a share of online shoppers of 26% in April and will continue to grow. Our forecast predicts this sunny outlook for mainly online growth.

Lastly, Travel/Transport sees an uprise in June. The Dutch seem to get their spring and summer trips in order and are booking their preferred ways of travel at this time of year. Moreover, we can confirm this with the May data: the Travel/Ticket category has a significant increase and strikes up 8% of the total share.

Germany: Food and Groceries expected lead overall growth in June, driven by offline

Interestingly, looking at Germany’s June-graph, all product categories are scattered. Looking back at May data, the country sees significant growth in all (but Travel/Tickets and Media/Electronics) categories. Indeed, May’s volumes are showing a positive trend in the e-commerce volumes. 

The category of Food and groceries is expected to have the highest growth of the categories in June, but growth will be mainly offline. The through-the-stomach consumable categories combined (Food/Food Health products) are among the biggest in the country, as it strikes up a share of 32% of online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category in May.
The only category bigger than this one is Fashion/Cosmetics (38%), and we expect a further increase this month. However, our predictions see offline growth only.

Alternatively, we see a small shift from offline to online purchases in Pet food/Supplies in our June outlook. The vertical already takes on a share of 10% in May and is expected to grow further in June.

Norway: Norwegians have the travel bug again, causing for an expected lead and overall growth in June, for both offline and online in Travel/Transport

Norway does its own thing. The May shares of online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category (April 2022) show how Travel/Transport and Tickets are the only growing categories, and therefore goes completely against the stream of the four countries combined.

All these purchases in Travel/Transport are probably linked to Tickets, as this category also sees growth in June, but a little less than the beforementioned. We see similar growth expectations for Fashion.

Food/Groceries is in the lift, too. June is a sunny month for this category, but mostly for offline.

UK: Food/groceries continues to lead expected overall growth in June, growing both offline and online

It is food-o-clock in the United Kingdom. Food and Groceries, Pet Food/Supplies and Health/Health Food Products all see the prospect of growth in June, with Food and groceries in particular. The category is expected to continue being the dominant growth category in May where about 30% of the increase is expected to be online and 70% offline.

Petfood is a good second place regarding online purchases. Health/Health Food Products is also growing in June, but mostly offline.

Fashion will most likely see a small decline. However, this category still holds 25% share online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category (April 2022).

Apart from Media/Electronics, most categories either stay stable or have growth in the UK. The category of Media/Electronics traditionally has a big uprise in the Peak Season, drops in January and the following months.