September Outlook: Going into peak, online volumes are on par with 2021

AfterPay Insights’ monthly forecasts are back with this September outlook for e-commerce in the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, and the UK. Do Dutch, German, Norwegian and UK consumers intend to increase or decrease their shopping in September? What does this mean for overall e-commerce growth in September? And which categories can we expect to grow or decline from both the online and offline perspectives?

A quick look back at the August development reveal that online volumes (number of online purchases across all countries) are on par with volumes in August 2021. Going into the September to December Peak season, we will keep you updated on the monthly E-com growth – and also shed light on the overall Peak season growth curve, as we in 2020 and 2021 saw very different curves (continuous growth vs hockey-stick growth).

The Netherlands: Fashion is expected to continue being the dominant growth category in September

The Dutch seem to continue their fashion shopping also after the summer, turning their attention to update their wardrobe with some fall Fashion. The category is expected to grow dominantly in September, growing both online and offline. In August the category of Fashion/Cosmetics has a share of 32% of all categories combined, which also makes it the biggest again.

Another category that continues to grow both online and offline is Health/Health Food products. The August statistics show a share of 27%, and is fairly close behind Fashion/Cosmetics. 

Looking at the overall Dutch predictions we see that the product categories are (mostly) all scattered around the heart of the matrix.

Germany: Food and Groceries continue to grow, driven by offline

Germany continues the trend from last month seeing almost all their product categories decline in September. Only Food and Groceries is likely to get an increase in shares, but predominantly offline. The other categories are expected to decrease and have a place in the bottom left corner.

Fashion has a somewhat bigger share of online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category versus Food and Groceries (combined with the other Food/Health Products). In August the share is 32% for Fashion versus 29% for Food and Groceries.

Norway: Travel & Transport expected to continue to grow in September, both offline and online

Norwegians doesn’t stop with trip, trek, and travel when summer is over and fall makes an entrance. Travel and Transport is expected to have the highest online growth in this coming month. This month it is the only category with online growth.

Fashion/Cosmetics, as a category sees a share of 25% in August, making it the biggest one overall. But for September we expect only a small growth that will be mainly driven by offline.

Food and Groceries is expected to continue to be the leading category in growth, but as last month mainly by offline purchases.

UK: Food/groceries continues to lead expected overall growth in September, growing both offline and online

Food and Groceries is expected to continue being the dominant growth category in September.
 Very similar compared to last few months, about 30% of the increase is expected to be online and 70% offline, which makes the category a bit of a lone ranger in the matrix graph. Food and Groceries had as expected the highest share of online shoppers in August, 43% that made at least one purchase online.

As in August, Petfood has a small increase, too, but mainly offline.

Fashion continues with its decreasing trend from last month, but combined with Cosmetics, still makes up for 34% in the share of online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category.