AfterPay Insights’ monthly forecasts are back with this June outlook for e-commerce in the Netherlands, Germany and Norway. Do Dutch, German and Norwegian consumers intend to increase or decrease their shopping in June? What does this mean for overall e-commerce growth in June? And which categories can we expect to grow or decline from both the online and offline perspectives?
Our results show that consumers intend to increase their overall purchases in June. On the other hand, we also see that the share of consumers who intend to increase online purchases reduces – this is the case across all three countries. A trend that we have seen developing since December 2020 and a clear seasonal effect: we see a similar trend during the same period last year.
The more infrequent online shopper segments are less positive to increase online purchases in June. As we uncovered in our earlier blog about Shopping Frequency versus Loyalty, these segments are more likely to shift back to offline channels when they get the chance: they were pushed to online channels by circumstances out of their control and as a result are not yet fully convinced on the convenience of online shopping.
On a positive note, we see that Heavy Online Shoppers intend to increase online purchases in June. These consumers completely embrace online shopping: it is their natural and preferred way of making purchases. Since this segment stands for a disproportionally high share of online purchases, we may see the online shopper base reduce in size overall in June while the number of online purchases remains fairly stable.
Looking at the product-mix that consumers state to purchase in June, we see Fashion – as always – being the locomotive of increased online shopping. But the big change we see in consumers’ June projections is regarding Travel/Transport and Tickets. Since March 2020, June now marks the first month in over a year where consumers are positive (or almost positive, depending country) to increase purchases in these two categories.
Our latest survey results indicate that the average Dutch consumer intends to buy more overall in June, but is likely to decrease online purchases. Comparing Dutch shoppers’ projections this month compared to last month, we see that Dutch consumers are intent on increasing overall purchases while simultaneously shifting more purchases from online to offline.
However, when we take online purchase frequency into account, we see that Heavy Online Shoppers intend to increase online purchases in June. But even though Heavy Online Shoppers comprise 15% of all Dutch consumers wand conduct 45% of all online purchases in May, this segment is not large enough to completely compensate for consumers’ overall decreased online purchase intentions. As the segment still stands for a disproportionately large share of online purchases, we may see e-commerce growth stabilize in the Netherlands in June. This is a clear seasonal effect as we see a similar trend during the same period in 2020.
Just like in the Netherlands, the average German consumer intends to buy more overall while at the same time decrease online purchases in June. But German consumers attitudinal trend during the past month is somewhat different from Dutch consumers and more in the direction of what we see among Norwegian consumers. German consumers have a stable attitude in terms of increasing overall purchases, but the share aiming to shift more purchases from online to offline has increased in the past month.
Looking at online purchase frequency, we see patterns in line with what we see in the Netherlands: Heavy online Shoppers intend to increase online purchases in June. But even though Heavy Online Shoppers comprise 17% of all German consumers conducting 50% of all online purchases in May, this segment is not large enough to compensate for consumers’ overall decreased online purchase intentions. As the segment still stands for a disproportionately large share of online purchases, we may see e-commerce growth stabilize in the Germany in June. This is a clear seasonal effect as we see a similar trend during the same period in 2020.
The average Norwegian consumer states that they will continue to buy at the same level overall in June, while they intend to decrease online purchases. Looking at the change in attitude during the past month, this is very stable with a tendency to shift more purchases from online to brick-and-mortar stores.
Looking at Norwegian consumers’ shopping intentions through the ‘shopping frequency’ lens, we see that the Heavy Online Shopper segment is relatively small in Norway. The segment driving Norwegian e-commerce is actually Medium Online Shoppers, as they stand for the largest volume of online purchases (37% of Norwegian consumers conduct 39% of all online purchases). Medium Online Shoppers are also the most online positive segment, even though the average Medium Online Shopper aims to decrease online purchases in June. The aforementioned will likely result in a decrease of e-commerce growth in Norway in June. This is a clear seasonal effect as we see a similar trend during the same period in 2020.
According to Norwegian consumers, Fashion will drive Norwegian consumer purchases in June with growth expected to come 50% from online and 50% from brick-and-mortar sales. Trailing not far behind is Food & Groceries with growth predominately expected to come from brick-and-mortar stores. And we also see a big change in consumers’ projections of June purchases is regarding Travel/Transport. June marks the first time in over a year where consumers state they will increase purchases in these categories, and even more online than offline. The Ticket category has also made a similar journey from the bottom of the pack to now having caught up with the other categories from an attitudinal perspective.