Higher volumes in summer 2022 compared to 2021

AfterPay Insights’ monthly forecasts are back with this August outlook for e-commerce in the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, and the UK. Do Dutch, German, Norwegian and UK consumers intend to increase or decrease their shopping in August? What does this mean for overall e-commerce growth in August? And which categories can we expect to grow or decline from both the online and offline perspectives?

A quick look back into the July data tells us about the different trends in the four countries. What is most interesting is that the volumes are higher in July 2022, compared to July 2021. It appears that the Netherlands and Norway have an increase in online volumes in the July month. The e-commerce development in the Netherlands has a volume of 4.4 (was 4.1 in June, and 4.0 in July 2021) and Norway grows to 3.3 (from 3.2 in June, and 3.1 in July 2021). The only decline in volumes is visible in Germany, where the volume of online purchases drops to 4.8 in July (was 5.0 in June, and 4.7 in July 2021). The UK remains at 5.7, just like in June (no measurements from July 2021 available).

The Netherlands: Fashion is expected to continue being the dominant growth category in August

Are the Dutch shopping summer sales big time or are they getting ready for some fall Fashion? it sure seems like the consumers from the lower countries are grabbing some new fashionable items as this category is the growing dominantly in August. The fashion bits are mostly online purchases. In July the category of Fashion/Cosmetics has a share of 34% of all categories combined, which also makes it the biggest again.

Health/Health Food products and Travel/Transport continues to grow both online and offline.
The other two categories that are in the prospected lift are Health/Health Food products and Travel/Transport. The July statistics show a share of 28%, and is fairly close behind Fashion/Cosmetics. Travel/Transport is likely to see an increase in August, too. The last and hottest month of summer is pushing consumers to make purchases in this category online and offline. However, when we look at the combined shares of Travel/Transport and Tickets, it takes a share of the total of 11% (in July). This is because Tickets sees a smaller prospected growth.

Looking at the overall Dutch predictions we see that the product categories are (mostly) all scattered around the heart of the matrix.

Germany: Food and Groceries expected lead overall growth in August, driven by offline

Germany’s matrix, however, sees their product categories decline in August. Only Food and Groceries is likely to get an increase in shares, but predominantly offline. The other categories are expected to decrease and have a place in the bottom left corner.

Food and Groceries combined with the other Food/Health Products do have the biggest share together with Fashion in Germany in July, as they both reach 33% in the share of online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category.

Norway: Food, Travel & Fashion expected lead overall growth in August, growing both offline and online

Norwegians still trip, trek, and travel in August. Travel and Transport is expected to have the highest online growth in this coming month. This category growth happens mostly online.

Also good news for Fashion/Cosmetics, as that category sees a share of 29% in July, making it the biggest one overall. We expect growth for this combined category in August, both online and offline. But more so for Fashion than Cosmetics when looking into the prospects separately.

Food and Groceries is in the lift in the Nordic country. The combined categories of Food/Health Products takes on 18% in July in the share of online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category. Comparing last month to this month’s predictions: we notice that the Food and Groceries is shifting from left to right, which means more people start buying in this category online (compared to offline), which is good news for ecommerce.

UK: Food/groceries continues to lead expected overall growth in August, growing both offline and online

Food and Groceries is expected to continue being the dominant growth category in August.
Very similar compared to last month, about 30% of the increase is expected to be online and 70% offline, which makes the category a bit of a lone ranger in the matrix graph.

Petfood has a small increase, too, in August but mainly offline.

Fashion has a small expected decrease in August, but combined with Cosmetics, still makes up for 36% in the share of online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category.
The biggest category in the UK is Food/Health Products that hold a share of 45%.