Higher volumes, decreasing worries in summer 2022

Warm weather and sunny skies, is what we see and experience now in mid-August. Thus, a great time to see and review the status of ecommerce, as we like to work up a sweat at AfterPay Insights. In this short blog we review the current status of the ecommerce volumes, basket value, as well as health- and financial worries.

Kicking off with good news: higher volumes in July 2022
This summer’s ecommerce volumes are higher than the previous two years. The current volumes grow little by little, on a monthly basis for the Netherlands, Norway and the UK. The only outlier here is Germany that sees a small decline since May (from 5.2 in May to 4.8 in July). The UK reigns again when we look into volumes only (5.7), Germany (still) comes second (4.8), Netherlands (4.4) and Norway follow and Norway (3.3).
With numbers this good, we are very hopeful to see a smashing Peak season.

Lower basket values due to higher purchase frequency
Shopping at a high frequency is great, but also comes with a “downside”, as that lower the basket values. As shoppers go through check out more often, they make smaller transactions and is the biggest reason for a drop in the value of their spread-spendings. Perhaps summer sales and lower priced items are at stake, too. Although that is tough to pinpoint as we all experience inflation and prices that keep going up.
All in all, the biggest basket value is visible in Norway, with an average of 87 euros. The Nordic country truly towers here above the other four nations. Germany’s basket value comes in at 59 euros*, UK’s at 58 euros* and The Netherlands’ at 57 euros.
The basket value also decreased during Peak Season 2021, while the purchase frequency increased. With the current status we probably see a similar development and/or continuation.

Financial worry is decreasing, yet still higher than 2021
Inflation and invasion are the main reasons for driving the financial worries up from January. The levels lower again in May as the news on Ukraine slowly dies out on television. Interestingly, the level peaks again in June, to only make a big dip again in July. The current financial worry levels lie at 48% in the UK, 44% in Germany, 39% in Norway and 33% in the Netherlands. The rising prices of groceries and other necessities of life drive the levels of financial worries.
These current levels are still higher when comparing to the levels of July 2021, as visible in the graph.

After some fluctuation caused by Omikron, health worries are back at the same level as last year
Omikron is still around after a peak in cases in winter and summer (caused by holidays, little to no restrictions and festivals), but is no longer causing for high health worries. The milder symptoms and a changing attitude towards the virus, makes the numbers drop again this July, to an average health worry level of 39% in Germany, 38% in the UK, 34% in the Netherlands and 31% in Norway. As the autumn is only a few weeks away (unfortunately!), we do expect an increase in cases and health worries again. As we learn from looking at the autumn months in 2021 and 2020, colder weather makes people flock inside and gather in closed off spaces, which is the perfect condition for incontrollable viruses.

All in all, no reason for summertime sadness. The volumes are up, and the worries go down. Peak season is just around the corner which will have a positive effect on the volumes in ecommerce, across most product categories, and a higher online spend (current share of online is 42%).

*all local currencies are converted into euros in order to make a comparison