Food/Health Products takes the lead (30%) in overall shopping shares, Fashion is a close second (26%)

AfterPay Insights’ monthly forecasts are back with this July outlook for e-commerce in the Netherlands, Germany, Norway, and the UK. Do Dutch, German, Norwegian and UK consumers intend to increase or decrease their shopping in June? What does this mean for overall e-commerce growth in July? And which categories can we expect to grow or decline from both the online and offline perspectives?

A quick look back into the June data tells us about the different trends in the four countries. It appears that the UK, the Netherlands and Norway have an increase in online volumes in the June month, with an e-commerce development in the UK of 5.7 (was 5.6 in May). The Netherlands has a volume of 4.1 (was 3.8 in May) and Norway grows to 3.2 (from 2.7 in May). The only decline in volumes is visible in Germany, where the volume of online purchases drops to 5.0 in June (was 5.1 in May).

Our results show mixed results on how consumers intend to increase or decrease their overall purchases in July. Also, we see that the share of consumers who intend to increase online vs offline purchases is mixed, too. Only in Germany we see the biggest category increase more offline (vs online). The Conversely, the three other countries have a large category that grows both offline and online.

The Netherlands: Fashion is expected to continue being the dominant growth category in July – slightly more online than offline

Just like the previous month, the Dutch are loyal fashion shoppers. The share of online shoppers that makes at least one purchase in Fashion (in June 2022) is 27%, and a solid 33% for Fashion/Cosmetics, which makes it again the bigger product category. Based on consumers’ projections, Fashion will continue being the dominant growth category in June.

Another good month ahead for Health/ Health Food Products: the category sees a share of online shoppers of 28% in June and will continue to grow, both online and offline.

And just like last month, Travel/Transport sees growth. The Dutch are still to go out and about and are booking their preferred ways of travel at this time of year. Moreover, we can confirm this with the May data: the Travel/Ticket category has a significant increase and strikes up 8% of the total share.
Pet food is also doing well in the realm of online shopping. The kibble category remains at 9% of the share of online shoppers that at least make one purchase.

Germany: Food and Groceries expected to lead overall growth in July, driven by offline

Interestingly, looking at Germany’s June-graph, almost all product categories lie in the orange square of our matrix. That tells us German shoppers intend to make far fewer purchases.
The category of Food and Groceries is expected to have the highest growth of the categories in July, but growth will be mainly offline. Similar to last month, the through-the-stomach consumable categories combined (Food/Food Health products) are among the biggest in the country, as it strikes up a share of 32% of online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category in June.
The only category bigger than this one is Fashion/Cosmetics (33%).

Norway: Travel/Transport expected to lead overall growth in July, growing online and offline

Norway shopped around for trips, travel and transport again in June. All these purchases in Travel/Transport are probably linked to Tickets, as this category also sees growth in June and will continue to grow in July, with increase in both offline and online. Travel/Transport is good for a share of 11%. Tickets will also board the growth train in July, as we expect to see a small growth online. We see similar growth expectations for Fashion: a small increase and online.

Noteworthy is the fact that Norwegians make more purchases in June (compared to May, but sees declines in almost all product categories, apart from Tickets and Travel.

UK: Food and Groceries continues to lead expected overall growth, growing both offline and online

Food and Groceries, Pet Food/Supplies and Health/Health Food Products all see the prospect of growth in July, with Food and groceries in particular. The category is expected to continue being the dominant growth category in July where about 30% of the increase is expected to be online and 70% offline.

Just like in June, Pet food is a good second place regarding online purchases. Health/Health Food Products sees the prospect of fewer total purchases, but more online.

Fashion will most likely see a small decline. However, this category still holds 25% share online shoppers that have made at least one purchase in category (June 2022).