Black Week is here: ‘Black Friday’ attracts at least twice as many consumers as Cyber Monday, overlap is ~9% as total growth is 7-9%

This article is part of the AfterPay Insights 'Peak Season 2021' series. Click here for the series. 

Black Week is here! What can we expect during the peak of Peak ‘21? Our survey data, now covering interviews with more than 105.000 Dutch, German, Norwegian and British consumers, indicates that we can expect the concept of Black Friday to attract at least twice as many consumers as Cyber Monday. Shopper inflow to Black Friday/Cyber Monday is expected to be at least twice as high as the outflow, resulting in a net shopper base growth of 7-9%.

When comparing shoppers’ intentions per sales event and per country, we see that the relative attractiveness of the events differs most in the Netherlands, where Black Friday is expected to be 4.5 times bigger than Cyber Monday. Based on this finding, we can conclude that merchants in the Netherlands market the concept of Black Friday and the accompanying deals to their (potential) customer base more intensely than Cyber Monday – this also the case in Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom, but to a lesser extent.

Even though we see the greatest difference in attraction between the two events in the Netherlands, Black Friday ends up attracting the largest share of consumers in Germany and Norway (44% and 46%, respectively). And Cyber Monday is also successful in these countries in that regard, as well as in the United Kingdom.

Ultimately, we see that the shopper bases for Black Friday and Cyber Monday overlap: a significant share of consumers who aim to buy at one of the events also intend to buy on the other (~9%). From a chronological perspective, we see that of the consumers who intend to shop on Black Friday, 20-30% will go on to shop Cyber Monday deals.

What does the behavioral and demographical composition of Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopper segments look like? And are there differences per country? Read on to find out!

Black Friday attracts at least twice as many consumers as Cyber Monday, though a significant overlap exists

At least twice as many Dutch, German, Norwegian and British consumers intend to shop on Black Friday than on Cyber Monday. The relative attractiveness of the events differs most in the Netherlands, where Black Friday is expected to be 4.5 times as big as Cyber Monday, and least in the United Kingdom, where Black Friday is expected to be 2.5 times bigger than Cyber Monday.

Even though we see the greatest difference in attraction between the two events in the Netherlands, Black Friday ends up attracting the largest share of consumers in Germany and Norway (44% and 46%, respectively). And Cyber Monday is also successful in these countries in that regard, as well as in the United Kingdom.

Ultimately, we see that the shopper base for Black Friday and Cyber Monday overlaps: a significant share of consumers who aim to buy at one of the events also intend to buy on the other. As an example, of the consumers who intend to shop on Black Friday, 20-30% will go on to shop Cyber Monday deals. The cross-over purchase intentions are most likely due to the fact that these sales events are back-to-back from a calendar perspective.


 


Black Friday/Cyber Monday shopper base to grow of 7-9%, potential to grow further is high 

Our survey results indicate similar net growth rates for Black Friday and Cyber Monday in the Netherlands, Germany, Norway and the United Kingdom (between 7% and 9%). But we see significant differences between countries when we zoom into four key segments (lost shoppers, loyal shoppers, potential shoppers and new shoppers) that cause these – at a first glance comparable – growth figures.

For example, Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom are least loyal to the respective shopping events: only 20% of Dutch and 27% of British consumers shopped on Black Friday/Cyber Monday in 2020 and plan on doing so in 2021, compared to 37% in Norway and 35% in Germany. But Black Friday and Cyber Monday the Netherlands and the United Kingdom also show the highest share of new shoppers (+14% and +13%, respectively). It seems that Dutch and British consumers exhibit somewhat more volatile behavior year on year than their German and Norwegian counterparts.

 

Loyal Black Friday/Cyber Monday Shoppers are mostly young, digital-native females with a high income

The characteristics of the previously mentioned Black Friday/Cyber Shopper segments differ dramatically, and the patterns are consistent across all three countries:

What is next?

Coming soon is a lookback at how consumers shopped during the Peak Season sales so far. Stay tuned!